All along,
the overarching criticism of Raffi Hovannisian’s post-election protest campaign
has always been his lack of strategy and poor planning. The haphazard,
unorganized nature of his activities came to a head this past Tuesday:
Inauguration Day.
At his noon
‘alternative’ inauguration, Hovannisian continued his railing against the
authorities but made no mention of any radical or immediate actions. In fact,
he generated disappointment from the crowd when he called on them to return at
6 PM for another gathering and was heckled when he announced another rally next
Friday to discuss his party’s platform for the upcoming Yerevan elections.
People
angrily yelled “Heema! Heema!” (Now! Now!) in response and demanded immediate
action.
What
resulted was a completely spontaneous and energetic, yet futile and utterly
disorganized march on the streets of Yerevan.
The defenseless
crowd (including many elderly, women and children) was met by hundreds of riot
police who had the full force of the state at their disposal. Activists were
arrested, protesters pushed back, and even some of Raffi’s team got caught in
the melee.
It was a
standoff with no direction or plan whatsoever.
At one
point, Jirair Seifilian and his supporters parted through the crowd in an
orderly line, suggesting some sort of organization might develop. However, they
were literally disbanded in a matter of minutes once they reached the front, as
police advanced on the protestors and wielded them back in response to objects
being hurled.
Meanwhile,
Raffi disappeared from the scene (we found out later that he went to the
Genocide Memorial with the Chief of Police).
None of it
made any sense.
By most
accounts, the confrontation on Tuesday was a failure. Indeed, many commentators
in Armenia have referred to it as the death knell in Hovannisian’s movement—and
perhaps even his career.
However,
while I certainly share in the criticism of what transpired, I personally think
the day’s events may have some positive effects, as well.
Furthermore,
such action, despite its ineffective and volatile nature, is a raw outpouring
of the people’s uncontrollable anger with the regime and an important
manifestation of sincere passion. It is better to act and show those in power
the level of hostility the public holds for them than to continue holding
rhetorical rallies and empty victory gatherings.
In the end,
it is my hope that such popular actions will serve as a warning to authorities about the level of stringent opposition in the country and hopefully provide lessons about more refined strategy for future activism on the ground.
Of course, true change will not come from popular protests or mobilization alone. It will only come from the one thing which has always been missing in Armenia’s reality: ORGANIZATION.
The force and passion of the people for a better future must be channeled into an actual mass movement that can affect change. The disparate groups in the opposition and the disgruntled masses must all be unified in thought, word and deed. No more relying on leaders or saviors. The people must be organized from the ground up toward concrete steps which force healthy changes in the country.
This takes hard work (far beyond just rallies and ballot boxes) and will not happen over night—but there is no other way. There never has been. There are no magic buttons. Gatherings and platitudes must be replaced by grassroots organization and genuine democratic action.
Barring anything short of that, the regime will continue to maintain its grip on power and perpetuate its regressive policies.
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